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2003-2004 Seminar Series

The Variance of Time Averages in Markovian Event Simulation

Dr. Winfried Grassmann
Department of Computer Science
University of Saskatchewan
DEPARTMENT SEMINAR
DATE: January 19, 2004
TIME: 3:30 p.m.
PLACE: 2E25 Agriculture
*** Everyone is welcome ***

Abstract

In simulation, one typically uses time averages to estimate performance measures, such as expected queue lengths or blocking probabilities. To find how accurate these estimates are, one needs the variances of the estimators. We show how to obtain these variances analytically in the context of Markovian event systems. A discrete event system is called a Markovian event system if all rates depend only on the present state, and not on the past. Analytical solutions let us gain insight into the factors affecting the variance, and, in this way to estimate the simulation run length needed to obtain estimates of prescribed accuracy.

About the speaker

Professor Grassmann worked at the then Swiss flag carrier Swissair from 1968-1968. He was awarded his Ph.D. in 1968, and joined the Department of Computer Science in January 1969. He has written 3 books, one with Professor Tremblay (please do not hold this against him) and numerous articles, mostly on queueing theory and simulation.

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