Selected papers using dynamic modeling in health

Last update: October 2018

Hybrid Models

Rafferty E., McDonald W., Osgood N.D., Qian W., Doroshenko A. Seeking the optimal schedule for chickenpox vaccination in Canada: Using an agent-based model to explore the impact of dose timing, coverage and waning of immunity on disease outcomes. Vaccine. In Press. 2019.

Zhang Q. and Osgood N. 2010. Summary function elasticity analysis for an individual-based System Dynamics model. In Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference. December 2010, Baltimore, MD. 12pp. [Viral communicable dynamics]

Flynn T., Tian Y., Masnick K., Huynh E., Mair A., McDonnell G., Osgood N. 2014. Discrete Choice, Agent Based and System Dynamics Simulation of Health Profession Career Paths. Oral Presentation and Paper in Proceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference. December 7- 10, 2014, Savannah, GA. 12pp. [Optometry health workforce planning]

Gao, A., Osgood, N. D., An, W., Dyck, R. F., Gao, A., Osgood, N. D. (2014). A tripartite hybrid model architecture for investigating health and cost impacts and intervention tradeoffs for diabetic end-stage renal disease. Proceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference. IEEE Press. Retrieved from

Gao, A., Osgood, N. D., Jiang, Y., & Dyck, R. F. (2017). Projecting prevalence, costs and evaluating simulated interventions for diabetic end stage renal disease in a Canadian population of aboriginal and non-aboriginal people: an agent based approach. BMC Nephrology, 18(1), 283.

Kreuger, K., Flint MacBride, R., & Osgood, N. D. (2017). Beyond drill and fill: Modeling the impacts of risk-based care on oral health disparities. In G. A. Kaplan, A. Diez Roux, C. Simon, & S. Galea (Eds.), Growing inequality: bridging complex systems, population health, and health disparities (pp. 229-254). Washington, DC: Westphalia Press.

Vickers D, Osgood ND. 2014. "The Arrested Immunity Hypothesis in an Immunoepidemiological Model of Chlamydia Transmission". Theoretical Population Biology 93 (2014): 52-62.

Vickers, D., Zhang, Q. and Osgood, N. 2009. "Immunobiological Outcomes of Repeated Chlamydial Infection from Two Models of Within-host Population Dynamics". PLoS One, September 3, 2009. 33pp.

Dong, A., Osgood, N. 2011. "The Limits of Discrete Modeling of Continuous Individual Dynamics: A Cautionary Tale from Immuno-Epidemiological Dynamics". Accepted for Publication as a full paper and poster presentation in Proceedings, The 29 th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Washington D.C. July 2011. 9pp. [Communicable disease]

Vickers, D. and Osgood, N. 2007. "A unified framework of immunological and epidemiological dynamics for the spread of viral infections in a simple network-based population". Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, December 20, 2007. Volume 4. 26 pp.

Zhang, Q. and Osgood, N. 2009. "Local Analysis of Individual-based Viral Dynamic Models with Eigenspace and Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis". Proceedings, The 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2009, Albuquerque. 36pp.

Agent-Based Models

Rafferty, E., McDonald, W., Qian, W., Osgood, N. D., and Doroshenko, A. 2018. Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling. PeerJ 6:e5012 June 20, 2018.

Kreuger K, Osgood N. 2015. Particle Filtering Using Agent-Based Transmission Models. Accepted June 14, 2015. Full Paper to appear in Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference. December 6-9, 2015. Huntington Beach, CA. 11pp. [Viral infection dynamics]

Hashemian, M., Stanley, K.G., Knowles D.L., Calver J., Osgood, N.D. 2011. Human Network Data Collection in the Wild: The Epidemiological Utility of Micro-contact and Location Data. Full paper in Proceedings of the ACM SIGHIT International Health Informatics Symposium (IHI 2012). January 28-30, 2012, Miami, FL. 10pp. [H1N1 influenza]

Hashemian, M., Stanley, K., & Osgood, N. D. (2012). Leveraging H1N1 infection transmission modeling with proximity sensor microdata. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 12(1), 35.

Tian, Y., Osgood, N. D., Al-Azem, A., & Hoeppner, V. H. (2013). Evaluating the Effectiveness of Contact Tracing on Tuberculosis Outcomes in Saskatchewan Using Individual-Based Modeling. Health Education & Behavior, 40(1_suppl), 98S–110S.

Hashemian M., Qian W., Stanley K.G., Osgood, N.D. 2012. "Temporal aggregation impacts on epidemiological simulations employing microcontact data". BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, (12)132, 20pp (plus figures). [H1N1 influenza]

Esfabod, B., Kreuger K., and Osgood N. Gaming the Social System: A Game Theoretic Examination of Social Influence in Risk Behaviour. Short paper in Proceedings of the 2015 International Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction Conference, April 1-3, 2015. Springer International Publishing, 2015. 296-301. [Trust and diversity]

Dyck, R.F., Osgood, N., Gao, A., Stang, M.R. 2012. "The Epidemiology of Diabetes Mellitus Among First Nations and Non-First Nations Children". Canadian Journal of Diabetes. 36(1). pp19-24. [ABM for Diabetes used to validate work, but not really too much discussed. You can decide whether to include citation]

System Dynamics Models:

Safarishahrbijari, A., Teyhouee, A., Waldner, C. Juxin Liu, J., Osgood, N.D. 2018. Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections. BMC infectious diseases, 17(1), p.648. [Combination with machine learning/artificial intelligence in the form of particle filtering]

Tengs, T ., Osgood, N. and Lin, T . 2001. "Public health impact of changes in smoking behavior: results from the Tobacco Policy Model". Medical Care. 39(10), 1131-41.

Karanfil, Ö., Finegood, D., Osgood, N. "A System Dynamics Model of Body Weight Regulation and Obesity". Poster presentation and Abstract in Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Albuquerque. July 26-30, 2009

Osgood N, Yee K, An W, Grassmann W. 2015. "Addressing Dynamically Complex Decision Problems Using Decision Analysis and Simulation" In Rahmandad et al., Analytical Handbook for Dynamic Modelers, Cambridge MA. MIT Press. November 13, 2015. Pages 277-306. [Application to West Nile virus control]

Osgood N, Liu J. 2015. "Combining Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approaches and Dynamic Modeling" in Rahmandad et al., Analytical Handbook for Dynamic Modelers. Cambridge MA. MIT Press. November 13, 2015. Pages 125-170. [Application to influenza control]

Osgood, N. 1999. Beyond Markov: A system dynamics model of national tobacco policy. Poster presentation at the Society for Medical Decision Making Annual Meeting. Reno, NV. October 1999.

Tian, Y., Alawami, F., Al-Azem, A., Osgood, N., Hoeppner, V., Dutchyn, C. 2011. A System Dynamics model of tuberculosis diffusion with respect to contact tracing investigation. Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference. December 2011, Phoenix, AZ. 12pp.

Osgood, N., Liu, J. 2013. "Bayesian Parameter Estimation of System Dynamics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods: An Informal Introduction". Verbal and poster presentation and Full paper in Proceedings, T he 30 th International conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA. 19pp. July 22-24 th , 2013. [Influenza]

Grassmann, W., Zhang, J., Dyck, R., Osgood, N. 2012. "A System Simulation Model for Type 2 Diabetes in the Saskatoon Health Region", Poster Presentation and Full paper in Proceedings of the 29 th International conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland. 18pp. July 22-25, 2012.

Qian, W., Osgood, N.D., Stanley, K.G. Integrating epidemiological modeling and surveillance data feeds: a Kalman filter based approach. Oral presentation and publication in Proceedings the 2014 International Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling and Prediction Conference (SBP14), Washington DC, pp. 145-152. April 2-4, 2014. [Influenza]

Safarishahrbijari A., Lawrence, T., Lomotey, R., Liu J., Waldner C., Osgood N. 2015. Particle filtering in a SEIRV simulation model of H1N1 influenza. Accepted June 8, 2015. To appear in Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference. December 6 -9, 2015. Huntington Beach, CA. 12pp.

Tengs, T ., Osgood, N. and Chen, L. 2001. "The Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive National School- Based Anti-T obacco Education: Results from the Tobacco Policy Model". Preventive Medicine. 33(6), 558-70.

Turbow, D., Osgood, N., Jiang, S.C. 2003. "Evaluation of Recreational Health Risk in Coastal Waters Based on Enterococcus Densities and Bathing Patterns". Environmental Health Perspectives (4), 598-603.

Brinks, M., Dwight, R., Osgood, N., Sharavanakumar, G., Turbow, D., El-Gaouhry, M., Caplan, J., Semenza, J. 2008. "Health Risk of Bathing in Southern California Coastal Waters". Archives of Environmental and Occupational Health, 63(3). 13pp.

Sabounchi, N. S., Hovmand, P. S., Osgood, N. D., Dyck, R. F., & Jungheim, E. S. (2014). A novel system dynamics model of female obesity and fertility. American Journal of Public Health, 104(7), 1240–1246. Retrieved from

Urban, J. B., Osgood, N. D., & Mabry, P. (2011). Developmental Systems Science: Exploring the Application of Systems Science Methods to Developmental Science Questions. Research in Human Development, 8(1), 1–25.

Osgood, N. 2014. "System Dynamics Modeling for Tobacco Control: A Brief Introduction". Section on Simulation Models for Tobacco Control. 2014 50th Anniversary Surgeon General’s Report, The Health Consequences of Smoking: 50 Years of Progress.

Liu S., Osgood N., Gao Q., Xue H., Wang Y. (2015). "Systems Simulation Model for Assessing the Sustainability and Synergistic Impacts of Sugar-sweetened Beverages Tax and Revenue Recycling on Childhood Obesity Prevention in the United States". Accepted October 20, 2015 in the Journal of the Operations Research Society.

Osgood, N., Mahamoud, A., Hassmiller-Lich, K., Tian, Y., Al-Azem, A., Hoeppner, V. "Estimating the Relative Impact of Early-Life Infection Exposure on Later-Life Tuberculosis Outcomes in a Canadian Sample". 2011. Research in Human Development. 8(1). pp26-47. Winter 2011. 22pp.

Osgood, N., Dyck, R., Grassmann, W. 2011. "The Inter- and Intra-generational Impact of Gestational Diabetes on the Epidemic of Type 2 Diabetes". American Journal of Public Health. 101(1). January 2011. pp. 173-179. 7pp.

Lich, K.H., Osgood, N.D., Mahamoud, A. 2010. "Using System Dynamics Tools to Gain Insight into Intervention Options Related to the Interaction Between Tobacco and Tuberculosis". Global Health Promotion. 17(1) Supplement 07-20. 16pp.

Vickers, D., Osgood, N.* 2010. "Current crisis or artifact of surveillance: insights into rebound chlamydia rates from dynamic modelling". BMC Infectious Diseases 10 (70), 10pp.

Both System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling (separate models)

Trecker, M. A., Hogan, D. J., Waldner, C. L., Dillon, J.-A. R., & Osgood, N. D. "Revised simulation model does not predict rebound in gonorrhoea prevalence where core groups are treated in the presence of antimicrobial resistance." Sexually Transmitted Infections. Published Online December 15, 2014.

Tian, Y. and Osgood, N. 2011. Comparison between Individual-based and Aggregate Models in the context of Tuberculosis Transmission. Proceedings, The 29th International conference of the System Dynamics Society. July 2011, Washington, D.C. 29pp.

Osgood N., Liu J. 2014. Towards Closed Loop Modeling: Evaluating the Prospects for Creating Recurrently Regrounded Aggregate Simulation Models. Oral presentation and full paper publication in Proceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, Savannah Georgia, pp. 829-841. December 7-10, 2014. [Influenza application]

Osgood, N. 2009. "Representing Progression and Interactions of Comorbidities in Aggregate and Individual-Based Systems Models". Proceedings, The 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2009, Albuquerque. 20pp. [Co-morbid chronic diseases]